Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, believes that the chances of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are higher than what’s currently being forecasted by popular betting markets. According to Sigel, Polymarket’s prediction that the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 are around 77% is "underpriced."

A Pro-Crypto President-Elect

Sigel’s optimism mirrors the industry-wide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Trump, who has expressed his support for cryptocurrency, wants to make America "the world’s crypto capital." This sentiment is reflected in prediction markets, which work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes.

Industry-Wide Expectations

The odds of a US Solana ETF listing have increased to approximately 84% as of January 2, according to Polymarket’s website. This is not surprising, given the industry-wide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US. In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought permission from US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs.

Challenges Ahead

However, there are challenges that need to be overcome before a Solana ETF can be listed in the US. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reportedly challenged the asset managers’ plans in August, citing concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs, which are the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges, use an atypical "grantor trust" structure typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity.

Success Hinges on Structure

Issuers say success may hinge on whether proposed Solana ETFs can conform to a similar structure. Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US.

Sigel’s Optimism

In November, shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly said the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high." This sentiment is reflected in Polymarket’s forecast, which suggests that bettors believe that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets.

Polymarket: The Most Popular Cryptocurrency Betting Platform

Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.

Bullish Bettors

Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US. Magazine: How Crypto Laws Are Changing Across the World in 2025

A Banner Year Ahead?

The odds favor a Solana (SOL) ETF listing in the United States this year, according to Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck. With Polymarket’s forecast suggesting that the odds are around 84%, it seems likely that bettors believe that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets.

Conclusion

The industry-wide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US, combined with Trump’s pro-crypto stance, make it seem likely that a Solana (SOL) ETF listing will happen this year. However, there are challenges ahead, including concerns about the structure of proposed Solana ETFs. Despite these challenges, bettors seem confident that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets.

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